The Israeli logistics real estate market entered 2026 in a state that would have seemed impossible five years ago: vacancy below 2.3%, rent growth accelerating past 10% annually in prime locations, and a development pipeline that lags demand by an estimated three years. For investors who recognized this structural shift early, the returns have been exceptional.
The underlying driver is Israel's e-commerce market, which has grown at 18% annually since 2021. This growth is not a post-pandemic anomaly — it reflects a structural shift in Israeli consumer behavior that mirrors what Europe experienced between 2015 and 2020. Israeli consumers, among the most tech-literate in the world, have embraced online retail at an accelerating pace. The entry of Amazon into the Israeli market in 2021 was a catalyst, immediately raising consumer expectations for delivery speed and accelerating retailers' investment in fulfillment infrastructure.
Amazon Israel's fulfillment network now operates from three major distribution centers and is actively seeking to expand. Temu's entry in 2023 has further compressed last-mile logistics capacity, with the Chinese retailer operating from a centralized hub in the Shfela corridor. Meanwhile, Israeli retailers — led by Shufersal, Super-Pharm, and a cluster of fashion and electronics brands — are investing heavily in building in-house fulfillment capabilities to compete with marketplace delivery speeds.
Supply constraints are structural, not cyclical. Industrial zoning near Israeli population centers is tightly regulated and politically difficult to expand. The combination of high land costs, lengthy permitting timelines (typically 3–5 years from planning to occupancy), and limited available plots adjacent to major population centers means that new supply will not meaningfully close the demand gap before 2028. This creates a prolonged period of favorable conditions for logistics asset owners.
Investment Case
Cap rates for prime logistics assets in Israel currently range from 5.5–7%, depending on location, building quality, and lease terms. This represents a meaningful premium over Western European equivalents (Germany: 3.5–4.5%, Netherlands: 3.8–5%), driven by higher risk perception of the Israeli market — a perception we believe is mispriced given the structural demand dynamics and tenant quality.
Rent growth forecast for 2026: 8–12% in logistics, with Ashdod Port corridor and the Dan metropolitan ring expected to outperform. Properties with long-term NNN leases to creditworthy tenants are trading at 5.5–6.2% cap rates. Value-add plays — vacant or short-lease properties requiring repositioning — offer upside to 7.5–9% stabilized yields.